New home sales jumped in June as sales data from prior months were revised upward, further signaling sturdy demand in the housing market. June sales rose 3.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That was the strongest since February 2008, beating the 560,000 forecast set by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The median price jumped to $306,700 in June, 6% higher than a year ago. Supply retreated to 4.9 months’ worth of homes at the current sales pace.
Wednesday was marked by Durable Goods Orders figures. New orders for manufactured durable goods in June decreased $9.3 billion or 4.0 percent to $219.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced. This decrease, down two consecutive months, followed a 2.8 percent May decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 3.9 percent. Transportation equipment, also down two consecutive months, led the decrease, $8.5 billion or 10.5 percent to $72.2 billion.
However the focus of the session was on FOMC rate decision and the following statement. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged while saying risks to the U.S. economy have subsided and the labor market is getting tighter, suggesting conditions are getting more favorable for an increase in borrowing costs. “Near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in its statement Wednesday after a two-day meeting in Washington, before repeating language from June that the panel “continues to closely monitor” inflation and global developments. Job gains were “strong” in June and indicators “point to some increase in labor utilization in recent months,” the Fed said.
On Thursday Unemployment Claims figures were released. Jobless claims increased by 14,000 to 266,000 in the week ended July 23, a Labor Department report showed Thursday in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for 262,000 applications. The less-volatile four-week average dropped to remain at the second-lowest level since 1973. Hiring managers are reluctant to pare staff as the labor market tightens and demand continues to expand in the face of subdued global growth prospects. Fed policy makers on Wednesday acknowledged a rebound in June employment and took a step toward raising interest rates before year-end.
Friday brought GDP, Chicago PMI and Revised Consumer Confidence figures. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent in the second quarter of 2016, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.8 percent (revised). The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and exports that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell 1 point to 55.8 in July from the 1½-year high of 56.8 in June, led by a fall in New Orders. Smaller declines were seen in Production and Order Backlogs, which offset a strong increase in the Employment component. The Barometer’s three-month average, though, which provides a better picture of the underlying trend in economic activity, rose to 54.0 from 52.2 in Q2, the highest since February 2015.
Consumer confidence slid in July from the prior month on dimmer views of the U.S. economy’s prospects and lingering concerns among higher-income earners about global market conditions. The University of Michigan said Friday that its final index of sentiment declined to 90 this month from 93.5 in June. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 90.2 after July’s preliminary figure of 89.5. “While concerns about Brexit are likely to quickly recede, weaker prospects for the economy are likely to remain,” Richard Curtin, the Michigan survey’s director, said in a statement.
This week markets will be looking at:
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Monday 16:00)
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Wednesday 14:15)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Wednesday 16:00)
Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)
Non-Farm Employment Change/Unemployment Rate (Friday 14:30)