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MI Leading Index remains below zero

Wednesday, Jul 20 2016
The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, rose from –0.37% in May to –0.14% in June. Westpac Chief Economist, Westpac’s Chief Economist, Bill Evans, commented: “While the growth rate of the Index remains below zero, indicating a continuation of the below trend momentum seen over the last 14 months, it has improved significantly since the start of the year. Indeed this latest reading suggests growth over the next 3 to 9 months will be almost around trend. That outlook is more consistent with Westpac’s forecast for growth holding steadily around a 3% pace over the next year."
The Leading Index growth rate has lifted from being 1.19% below trend in January to 0.14% below trend in June.The main contributors to this growth improvement are: commodity prices (+0.71ppts); the sharemarket (+0.37ppts); US industrial production (+0.21ppts); and dwelling approvals (+0.16ppts). Partially offsetting these improvements have been a deterioration in aggregate monthly hours worked (–0.34ppts).
 
Aussie is currently being traded few points below 0.75 level. Pair is likely to find support around 0.7450 handle and resistance above 0.7560 level.
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