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Events that marked the week:

On Tuesday Final GDP and CB Consumer Sentiment figures were released. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.1% in the first quarter of 2016, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2015, real GDP increased 1.4%. The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and exports that were partly offset by negative contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had decreased in May, improved in June. The Index now stands at 98.0 (1985=100), up from 92.4 in May. The Present Situation Index increased from 113.2 to 118.3, while the Expectations Index rose from 78.5 to 84.5 in June. "Consumer confidence rebounded in June, after declining in May," said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

 

Pending Home Sales figures were released on Wednesday. The Pending Home Sales Index, slid 3.7 percent to 110.8 in May from a downwardly revised 115.0 in April and is now slightly lower (0.2 percent) than May 2015 (111.0).  With last month’s decline, the index reading is still the third highest in the past year, but declined year-over-year for the first time since August 2014. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says pending sales slumped in May across most of the country. “With demand holding firm this spring and homes selling even faster than a year ago, the notable increase in closings in recent months took a dent out of what was available for sale in May and ultimately dragged down contract activity,” he said.

 

Thursday brought Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI figures. In the week ending June 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 268,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 259,000 to 258,000. The 4-week moving average was 266,750, unchanged from the previous week's revised average. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 69 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1973.

 

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer rose 7.5 points to 56.8 in June from 49.3 in May, the highest since January 2015, led by strong gains in New Orders and Production. June’s rebound was just enough to offset the previous two months of weakness, leaving the Barometer broadly unchanged over the quarter at an average of 52.2 in Q2 compared with 52.3 in Q1. New Orders increased sharply on the month to the highest since October 2014, while Order Backlogs rose to the highest since March 2011, breaking a 16-month run of below 50 readings. Production also increased significantly to the highest since January 2016.

 

Friday was marked by Manufacturing PMI figures. The June PMI registered 53.2 percent, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from the May reading of 51.3 percent. The New Orders Index registered 57 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the May reading of 55.7 percent. The Production Index registered 54.7 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than the May reading of 52.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 50.4 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the May reading of 49.2 percent.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

Trade Balance (Wednesday 14:30)

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Wednesday 16:00)

FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wednesday 20:00)

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Thursday 14:15)

Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)

Non-Farm Employment Change/Unemployment Rate (Friday 14:30)

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