Wednesday was marked by PPI, Empire State Manufacturing and Industrial Production figures. The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4% in May, seasonally adjusted. In May, over 60 percent of the advance in the final demand index can be traced to prices for final demand goods, which climbed 0.7%. The index for final demand services moved up 0.2%. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services edged down 0.1% in May after rising 0.3% in April.
The June 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity expanded modestly for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index climbed fifteen points to 6.0. The new orders index and the shipments index rose from negative values to 10.9 and 9.3, respectively—a sign that orders and shipments were increasing after last month’s decline.
Industrial production fell 0.4% in May after a revised 0.6% rise in April. This is the seventh decline in industrial output in the past nine months. The decline in May was in line with forecasts of economists polled by MarketWatch. “It’s a poor report. Industrial production is falling and weak on a broad horizon,” said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics.
Fewer Federal Reserve officials expect the central bank to raise interest rates more than once this year, as policy makers painted a mixed picture of a U.S. economy where growth is picking up while job gains slow. Britain’s June 23 referendum on membership of the European Union was also “one of the uncertainties that we discussed and that factored into today’s decision,” Chair Janet Yellen said after the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to leave rates steady at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday in Washington.
“The pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed while growth in economic activity appears to have picked up,” the FOMC said in a statement after its gathering. The Fed expressed confidence that jobs will rebound, saying that it expects “labor market indicators will strengthen.” The “drag from net exports appears to have lessened” and housing has improved, while business fixed investment has been “soft.”
Thursday brought CPI, Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index figures. The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.0% before seasonal adjustment. The food index declined in May, but the indexes for energy and all items less food and energy rose, resulting in the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The food index fell 0.2% as all six major grocery store food group indexes declined. The energy index increased 1.2% as the gasoline index rose 2.3% and the indexes for fuel oil and natural gas also advanced.
Separate report on Unemployment Claims showed that in the week ending June 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 277,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 264,000. The 4-week moving average was 269,250, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 269,500. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 67 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1973.
On the other side Philly Fed Manufacturing Index rose almost 7 points, to 4.7, and returned to positive territory this month after two consecutive negative readings. Nearly 55 percent of the respondents reported no change in new orders this month, and 45 percent reported no change in shipments. As with the other broad indicators this month, the unfilled orders, delivery times, and inventories indexes all remained negative.
On Friday Building Permits and Housing Starts figures were released. Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,138,000. This is 0.7% above the revised April rate of 1,130,000, but is 10.1% below the May 2015 estimate of 1,266,000. Single-family authorizations in May were at a rate of 726,000; this is 2.0% below the revised April figure of 741,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 381,000 in May.
Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,164,000. This is 0.3% below the revised April estimate of 1,167,000, but is 9.5% above the May 2015 rate of 1,063,000. Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 764,000; this is 0.3% above the revised April figure of 762,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 396,000.
This week markets will be looking at:
Existing Home Sales (Wednesday 16:00)
Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)
New Home Sales (Thursday 16:00)
Durable Goods Orders (Friday 14:30)