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Events that marked the week:

Tuesday brought Trade Balance, Non-Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings figures. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced that the goods and services deficit was $47.1 billion in February, up $1.2 billion from $45.9 billion in January, revised. February exports were $178.1 billion, $1.8 billion more than January exports. February imports were $225.1 billion, $3.0 billion more than January imports.

The Non-Manufacturing PMI registered 54.5 percent in March, 1.1 percentage points higher than the February reading of 53.4 percent. Smaller increase to 54.5 was expected. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slightly faster rate. The majority of respondents’ comments indicate that business conditions are mostly positive and that the economy is stable and will continue on a course of slow, steady growth.

 

Job openings were little changed at 5.4 million in February. The job openings rate was 3.7%. The number of job openings was little changed in February for total private and for government. Job openings increased in educational services (+48,000) and federal government (+19,000) but decreased in health care and social assistance (-147,000), finance and insurance (-54,000), and mining and logging (-8,000). Job openings edged up in construction (+36,000) and edged down in durable goods manufacturing (-19,000).

 

The focus of Wednesday's session was on FOMC Meeting Minutes. Federal Reserve policy makers last month debated an April interest-rate hike, with several officials leaning against such a move because it would send the wrong signal and others saying it might be warranted. “Several expressed the view that a cautious approach to raising rates would be prudent or noted their concern that raising the target range as soon as April would signal a sense of urgency they did not think appropriate,” minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s March 15-16 meeting released Wednesday in Washington said.

 

“In contrast, some other participants indicated that an increase” in the federal funds rate target range at the April 26-27 meeting “might well be warranted” if economic data came in as expected, the minutes said. It was noted that FOMC had room to raise rates if officials were surprised by the economy’s strength, while having less room to ease if growth softened. “This asymmetry made it prudent to wait for additional information regarding the underlying strength of economic activity and prospects for inflation before taking another step to reduce policy accommodation,” the minutes said.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

Retail Sales (Wednesday 14:30)

PPI (Wednesday 14:30)

CPI (Thursday 14:30)

Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)

Empire State Manufacturing Index (Friday 14:30)

Industrial Production (Friday 15:15)

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (Friday 16:00)

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