Tuesday brought CB Consumer Confidence figures. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had decreased in February, improved in March. The Index now stands at 96.2 (1985=100), up from 94.0 in February. Analysts were anticipating reading of 93.9. The Present Situation Index declined moderately from 115.0 to 113.5, while the Expectations Index increased from 79.9 to 84.7 in March.
Focus of Wednesday's session was on ADP Employment Change figures. Private sector employment increased by 200,000 jobs from February to March according to the March ADP National Employment Report. Increase by 193,000. "The Trade, Transportation and Utilities sector had its best month of employment gains since last June,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, VP and head of the ADP Research Institute. “Steady employment growth and accelerating wage growth in the workforce appear to be benefitting the Trade segment in particular.”
On Thursday, Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI figures were released. In the week ending March 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 276,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 265,000. Smaller increase to 266,000 was predicted. The 4-week moving average was 263,250, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 259,750. This marks 56 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1973.
The Chicago Business Barometer increased 6.0 points to 53.6 in March, led by sharp bouncebacks in Production and Employment. Four of the five Barometer components increased between February and March, with only Supplier Deliveries declining on the month. The increase in the Barometer was led by a very sharp rise in Production, which followed an even steeper decline in the previous month. The biggest surprise came from the Employment component which rose above the 50 mark in March and to the highest level since April 2015. This followed a period of relative weakness compared with other activity indicators.
Friday's session was marked by NFP, Manufacturing PMI and Revised Consumer Sentiment figures. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 215,000 in March.Smaller increase by 206,000 was predicted. Employment gains occurred in retail trade, construction, and health care, while job losses occurred in manufacturing and mining. Unemployment rate rose to 5.0%, while it was expected that it will remain unchanged.
In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 7 cents to $25.43, following a 2-cent decline in February, which is 0.3% increase. This was above forecasts on incline by 0.2%. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.3 percent. In March, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $21.37.
Consumer confidence in the U.S. dipped slightly in March as concerns persisted that the world’s largest economy will cool. The University of Michigan final sentiment index for last month eased to 91 from 91.7 in February. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 90.5. The gauge was up from a preliminary reading of 90 as Americans grew more upbeat about their own finances, offsetting less favorable views in economic growth.
Separate report, on Manufacturing PMI showed that the March PMI registered 51.8 percent, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the February reading of 49.5 percent. The New Orders Index registered 58.3 percent, an increase of 6.8 percentage points from the February reading of 51.5 percent. The Production Index registered 55.3 percent, 2.5 percentage points higher than the February reading of 52.8 percent. The Employment Index registered 48.1 percent, 0.4 percentage point below the February reading of 48.5 percent.
This week markets will be looking at:
Trade Balance (Tuesday 14:30)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Tuesday 16:00)
JOLTS Job Openings (Tuesday 16:00)
Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)
