Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,202,000. This is 0.2% below the revised December rate of 1,204,000, but is 13.5% above the January 2015 estimate of 1,059,000. Single-family authorizations in January were at a rate of 720,000; this is 1.6% below the revised December figure of 732,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 442,000 in January.
Privately-owned housing starts in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,099,000. This is 3.8% below the revised December estimate of 1,143,000, but is 1.8% above the January 2015 rate of 1,080,000. Single-family housing starts in January were at a rate of 731,000; this is 3.9% below the revised December figure of 761,000. The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 354,000.
Industrial production increased 0.9% in January after decreasing 0.7% in December. A storm late in the month likely held down production in January by a small amount. The index for utilities jumped 5.4%; demand for heating moved up markedly after having been suppressed by unseasonably warm weather in December. Manufacturing output increased 0.5% in January and was 1.2% above its year-earlier level.
Focus of the session was on FOMC Meeting Minutes. Federal Reserve policy makers debating their outlook for interest rates last month expressed concern that the fall in commodity prices and the rout in financial markets increasingly posed risks to the U.S. economy. “Participants judged that the overall implications of these developments for the outlook for domestic economic activity was unclear but they agreed that uncertainty had increased,” according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Jan. 26-27 meeting released Wednesday in Washington. “Many saw these developments as increasing the downside risks to the outlook.”
“While participants continued to expect that gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy would be appropriate, they emphasized that the timing and pace of adjustments will depend on future economic and financial-market developments and their implications for the medium-term economic outlook,” the minutes said. Officials agreed that incoming labor-market indicators had been “encouraging,” while data on spending and production were “disappointing.”
On Thursday Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index figures were published. In the week ending February 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 262,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 269,000. Analysts were expecting increase to 275,000. The 4-week moving average was 273,250, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 281,250.
Separate report, on Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for current activity, showed that index increased from a reading of -3.5 in January to -2.8 in February and has now been negative for six consecutive months. The index for current new orders remained negative and edged down 4 points, to -5.3. Firms reported an increase in shipments; the shipments index remained positive for the second consecutive month but fell 7 points from January. Firms reported continued declines in inventories, and the inventories index remained negative. Firms’ backlogs of unfilled orders were in decline again this month, and delivery times were shorter, according to the responding firms.
Friday's session was marked by CPI figures. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers was unchanged in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, beating forecasts on 0.1% decrease. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4% before seasonal adjustment. An increase in the index for all items less food and energy offset a decline in the energy index to lead to the seasonally adjusted all items index being unchanged. The energy index fell 2.8 percent as all of its major component indexes declined. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3% in January. The increase was broad-based, with most of the major components rising, but increases in the indexes for shelter and medical care were the largest contributors.
This week markets will be looking at:
CB Consumer Confidence (Tuesday 16:00)
Existing Home Sales (Tuesday 16:00)
New Home Sales (Wednesday 16:00)
Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)
Durable Goods Orders (Thursday 14:30)
Prelim GDP (Friday 14:30)
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (Friday 16:00)
