The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $42.4 billion in November, down $2.2 billion from $44.6 billion in October, revised. No change was expected. November exports were $182.2 billion, $1.6 billion less than October exports. November imports were $224.6 billion, $3.8 billion less than October imports.
However, the focus of the session was on FOMC Meeting Minutes. Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates last month was a “close call” for some policy makers who worried about too-low inflation and received assurances that their colleagues would closely monitor its progress. “Some members emphasized the importance of confirming that inflation would rise as projected and of maintaining the credibility of the committee’s inflation objective,” said minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Dec. 15-16 meeting, released Wednesday in Washington.
The minutes also indicated that some members believed “the risks attending their inflation forecasts remained considerable” even as “the committee was now reasonably confident in its expectation that inflation would rise, over the medium term, to its 2 percent objective.” The minutes showed “almost all” FOMC participants were “now satisfied the committee’s criteria for beginning the policy normalization process” had been met.
On Thursday Unemployment Claims figures were released.In the week ending January 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 277,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 287,000. Analysts were anticipating decline to 271,000. The 4-week moving average was 275,750, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 277,000.
Focus of the Friday's US session was on NFP figures. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 292,000 in December. Analysts were anticipating smaller incline by 203,000. Employment rose in several industries, including professional and business services, construction, health care, and food services and drinking places. Mining employment continued to decline. In 2015, payroll employment growth totaled 2.7 million, compared with 3.1 million in 2014.
The number of unemployed persons, at 7.9 million, was essentially unchanged in December, and the unemployment rate was 5.0 percent for the third month in a row. This was in line with market forecasts. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons were down by 0.6 percentage point and 800,000, respectively.
This week markets will be looking at:
JOLTS Job Openings (Tuesday 16:00)
Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)
Retail Sales (Friday 14:30)
PPI (Friday 14:30)
Empire State Manufacturing Index (Friday 14:30)
Industrial Production (Friday 15:15)
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (Friday 16:00)
