USD - Major events in the week ahead

Friday, Jan 01 2016

Events that marked the week:

Tuesday was marked by CB Consumer Confidence figures. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had decreased moderately in November, improved in December. The Index now stands at 96.5 (1985=100), up from 92.6 in November. Analysts were anticipating smaller increase to 93.6. The Present Situation Index increased from 110.9 last month to 115.3 in December, while the Expectations Index improved to 83.9 from 80.4 in November.

Wednesday's session was marked by Pending Home Sales data. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, decreased 0.9 percent to 106.9 in November from an upwardly revised 107.9 in October but is still 2.7 percent above November 2014 (104.1). Analysts were expecting increase 0.6% increase. Although the index has increased year-over-year for 15 consecutive months, last month's annual gain was the smallest since October 2014 (2.6 percent).

On Thursday Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI figures were released.In the week ending December 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 287,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 267,000. Analysts were anticipating increase to 274,000. The 4-week moving average was 277,000, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 272,500.

The Chicago Business Barometer contracted at the fastest pace since July 2009, falling 5.8 points to 42.9 in December from 48.7 in November. Analysts were predicting increase to 50.5. It has been a volatile year for the Barometer.New Orders and Production have experienced particularly large swings with businesses never recovering fully from a sharp plunge at the beginning of the year. The Barometer’s December print is 16.5 points beneath the January high of 59.4. The quarterly average declined to 49.3 in Q4, the same as in Q2 which was the weakest quarter since Q3 2009.

This week markets will be looking at:

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Monday 16:00)

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Wednesday 14:15)

Trade Balance (Wednesday 14:30)

FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wednesday 20:00)

Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)

Non-Farm Employment Change/Average Hourly Earnings/Unemployment Rate (Friday 14:30)

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