China's economy will grow at the slackest pace since 1990 next year, and the yuan will weaken by 4% against the dollar, economists in a Nikkei Inc./NQN survey predicted. Real gross domestic product is seen expanding 6.4% in 2016, the lowest since the year after the deadly Tiananmen Square protests, according to the average forecast of 22 economists responding to the recent write-in survey. China's next five-year plan aims for average growth of at least 6.5% from 2016 to 2020.
Forecasts of 2015 growth averaged 6.9%. The official numbers are due out next month, but some reckon the actual rate is as low as 5-6%. Many of the economists think China's declared shift to consumer-led growth from that driven by investment and exports will be a lengthy process. Xia Le at BBVA Research predicted that "growth will continue its downward trend in the next three years."
Real estate market deterioration remained high among the perceived economic risks. Though property prices are rising in major metropolises, a glut of unsold stock persists in second- and third-tier cities. Even if prices hit bottom, investment will continue to fall, Zhao Yang at Nomura said.