Tuesday brought Durable Goods Orders and CB Consumer Confidence figures. U.S. orders for long-lasting or durable goods fell a seasonally adjusted 1.2% in September amid widespread softness in the manufacturing sector. This was in line with market expectations. The auto industry was one of the few bright spots again, with orders snapping back 1.8% after a decline in August. Bookings for commercial aircraft sank 35.7%, however. Stripping out transportation, U.S. durable-goods orders slipped 0.4% last month. No change was predicted.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased moderately in September, declined in October. The Index now stands at 97.6 (1985=100), down from 102.6 in September. No change was expected. The Present Situation Index decreased from 120.3 last month to 112.1 in October, while the Expectations Index edged down to 88.0 from 90.8 in September.
Focus of the Wednesday's session was on Fed's interest rate decision and the following statement. The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but downplayed global economic headwinds and left the door open to tightening monetary policy at its next meeting in December.Following a two-day policy meeting, the central bank said it was still monitoring economic and financial developments abroad, but did not repeat that global risks would have a likely impact on the U.S. economy, as it warned at its last meeting in September. That omission marked a softening in tone compared to the Fed's statement last month.
On Thursday GDP and Unemployment Claims figures were released. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.5% in the third quarter of 2015, in line with expectations, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Separate report on Unemployment Claims showed that in the week ending October 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 260,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 259,000. Analysts were forecasting increase to 264,000. The 4-week moving average was 259,250, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 263,250. This is the lowest level for this average since December 15, 1973 when it was 256,750.
Friday was marked by Employment Cost Index and PCE figures. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.6% seasonally adjusted, in line with market expectations, for the 3-monthperiod ending in September 2015, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Wages andsalaries (which make up about 70% of compensation costs) increased 0.6%, and benefits (which make up the remaining 30% of compensation) increased 0.5%.
Separate report showed that, personal income increased $18.6 billion, or 0.1%, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $19.2 billion, or 0.1%, in September. Analysts were expecting 0.2% gain. Personalconsumption expenditures (PCE) increased $15.6 billion, or 0.1%.In August, personal income increased $54.9 billion, or 0.4%, DPI increased $49.5 billion, or 0.4%, and PCE increased $44.2 billion, or 0.4%, based on revised estimates.
This week markets will be looking at:
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Monday 16:00)
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Wednesday 14:15)
Trade Balance (Wednesday 14:30)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Wednesday 16:00)
Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)
Non-Farm Employment Change/Unemployment Rate (Friday 14:30)
