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Events that marked the week:

From the USA on Monday Non-Manufacturing PMI figures were released. US Non-Manufacturing PMI registered 56.9 percent in September, 2.1 percentage points lower than the August reading of 59 percent. Smaller decrease to 58.0 was forecasted. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. According to the NMI, 13 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in September. There has been a cooling off in the rate of growth during the month of September. Also, the trend of lower costs and little pricing power continues as reflected in the contraction of the pricing index. Overall, respondents continue to remain positive about current business conditions.

Tuesday brought Trade Balance figures. US goods and services deficit was $48.3 billion in August, up $6.5 billion from $41.8 billion in July, revised. Analysts were predicting increase to $47.8 billion. August exports were $185.1 billion, $3.7 billion less than July exports. August imports were $233.4 billion, $2.8 billion more than July imports.The August increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $6.6 billion to $67.9 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $19.6 billion.

 

On Thursday Unemployment Claims figures were released.In the week ending October 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 263,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. Analysts were forecasting decline to 274,000. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 277,000 to 276,000. The 4-week moving average was 267,500, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 270,750 to 270,500. 

 

However, the focus of the session was on FOMC Meeting Minutes. Federal Reserve officials put off an interest-rate increase in September because of growing risks to their outlook for economic growth and inflation, mainly from China, even as they continued to say they were on track to raise the target later this year. Policy makers “agreed that developments over the inter-meeting period had not materially altered the committee’s economic outlook,” according to minutes of the Sept. 16-17 session of the Federal Open Market Committee, released Thursday in Washington. Nonetheless, ”the committee decided that it was prudent to wait for additional information confirming that the economic outlook had not deteriorated.

 

The FOMC noted that domestic economic conditions, including data on consumer spending and housing, had continued to improve, and the labor market had reached or was close to the committee’s long-run estimates for unemployment. Still, concerns over China and its potential spillover to other economies “were likely to depress U.S. net exports” and cause further strengthening of the dollar, which could damp inflation in the U.S. “Participants anticipated that the recent global developments would likely put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term,” the minutes said. “Compared with their previous forecasts, more now saw the risks to inflation as tilted to the downside.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

PPI (Wendesday 14:30)

Retail Sales (Wendesday 14:30)

CPI (Thursday 14:30)

Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)

Empire State Manufacturing Index (Thursday 14:30)

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Thursday 16:00)

Industrial Production (Friday 15:15)

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (Friday 16:00)

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