Events that marked the week:
On Tuesday Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production figures were released. Retail sales in the U.S. climbed for a second straight month, a sign consumers may be looking past recent volatility in financial markets. The 0.2% increase in August followed a 0.7% gain in July that was larger than previously reported, Commerce Department figures showed Tuesday in Washington. The median forecast of 84 economists called for a 0.3% advance.
Separate report on Empire State Manufacturing Index, missed market forecasts. The September 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity declined for a second consecutive month for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index remained well below zero at -14.7. Analysts were predicting decline to -0.5. Furthermore, Industrial Production figures showed 0.4% decrease more than anticipated 0.1% fall.
Wednesday brought CPI figures. The Consumer Price Index decreased 0.1% in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, while analysts were anticipating no change. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 0.2% before seasonal adjustment. The gasoline index declined sharply in August and was the main cause of the seasonally adjusted all items decrease. Other energy indexes were mixed, with the fuel oil index continuing to decline but the indexes for electricity and natural gas increasing in August. The food index rose 0.2% in August, with the indexes for eggs and for fruits and vegetables rising notably.
On Thursday Building Permits, Housing Starts and Unemployment Claims figures were released. Residential starts declined 3% to a 1.13 million annualized rate from a 1.16 million pace the prior month that was slower than previously estimated. The median forecast was 1.16 million. Permits, a proxy for future construction, climbed 3.5% to a 1.17 million annualized rate, indicating starts could edge up this month. They were projected to rise to a 1.16 million rate after 1.13 million the prior month, according to the survey median.
In the week ending September 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 264,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 275,000. No change was anticipated. The 4-week moving average was 272,500, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 275,750.
However, the focus of the session was on Fed interest rate decision. In one of the most widely anticipated Federal Reserve decisions in decades, the U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged Thursday. The Fed's pronouncement to leave rates at historic lows—where they’ve been since roughly the start of the Great Recession in 2008—signals that the U.S. economy has yet to fully recover from the near collapse. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.
This week markets will be looking at:
Existing Home Sales (Monday 16:00)
Durable Goods Orders (Thursday 14:30)
Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)
New Home Sales (Thursday 16:00)
Final GDP (Friday 14:30)
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (Friday 16:00)