The start of the third quarter saw conditions in the UK manufacturing sector remain relatively subdued. Although the headline seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS Purchasing Manager’s Index edged higher to 51.9 in July, from a 26-month low of 51.4 in June, it remained below the average for the current sequence of growth that began in April 2013 (54.3). However, it was above expected incline to 51.6.
The struggling manufacturing sector, and the impact of the strong pound on export performance, will be a worry for the Bank of England. However, with the goods-producing sector accounting for only one-tenth of the economy, these woes may take second place to the health of the far larger services sector in determining the timing of the first
interest rate hike, suggesting firms will have to adjust to the pound trading at its current highs.
Scratching beneath the surface of the headline manufacturing numbers shows that the sector is still reliant on the domestic market to drive overall demand, and on the consumer sector in particular. The continued weakness of investment goods demand suggests that ‘rebalancing’ remains firmly in the rhetoric as opposed to reality column.
After the data Sterling edged higher but immediately pulled back currently being traded few points below 1.5610 area. Pair is likely to find support around 1.5550 level and resistance above 1.5660 area. Later today, in the US session, ISM Manufacturing
PMI figures are scheduled for a release.