On Tuesday CB Consumer Confidence figures were released. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved in June, declined in July. The Index now stands at 90.9 (1985=100), down from 99.8 in June. Analysts were anticipating reading of 100.1 points. The Present Situation Index decreased moderately from 110.3 last month to 107.4 in July, while the Expectations Index declined sharply to 79.9 from 92.8 in June.
On Wednesday Pending Home Sales figures were released. The Pending Home Sales fell 1.8% to 110.3 in June but is still 8.2 percent above June 2014 (101.9). Analysts were predicting 1.0% incline. Despite last month's decline, the index is the third highest reading of 2015 and has now increased year-over-year for ten consecutive months.
However, the focus of the session was on Fed interest rate decision and the following statement. Federal Reserve policy makers said the labor market and housing have improved, moving closer to ending an unprecedented period of near-zero interest rates without providing a clear signal on the timing of liftoff. It said that it will tighten policy when it sees “some further improvement in the labor market,” adding the modifier “some,” and is “reasonably confident” inflation will move back to its 2 percent goal over the medium term. The committee has kept the benchmark overnight federal funds rate at a record low of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008, in the midst of the worst recession since the Great Depression.
Thursday's session was marked by GDP and Unemployment Claims figures were released. US GDP rose at a 2.3% annualized rate, and a revised 0.6% advance in the first quarter wiped out a previously reported contraction, Commerce Department data showed Thursday in Washington. Analysts were anticipating 2.6% gain. Consumer spending grew more than projected.The economy has moved beyond some of the early 2015 constraints including weather and port delays, while cooling global markets, a strong dollar and insufficient wage gains may continue to limit growth.
Separate report on Unemployment Claims showed increase by 12,000 to 267,000 in the period ended July 25, from 255,000 the prior week that was the lowest since November 1973. The median forecast called for 268,000. The four-week moving average, a less-volatile measure of job cuts, declined. Dismissals holding below 300,000 and sustained hiring would help convince Federal Reserve policy makers that the economy can withstand an increase in the benchmark interest rate.
On Friday Chicago PMI figures were released. The Chicago Business Barometer increased 5.3 points to 54.7 in July led by a double digit gain in Production and accompanied by gains in New Orders and the other three components. Analysts were predicting smaller increase to 50.7. While all components that comprise the Barometer rose in July, three of them – Order Backlogs, Supplier Deliveries and Employment – remained in contraction, although these elements would be expected to lag.
This week markets will be looking at:
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Monday 16:00)
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Wednesday 14:15)
Trade Balance (Wednesday 14:30)
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Wednesday 16:00)
Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)
Non-Farm Employment Change/ Unemployment Rate (Friday 14:30)