Wednesday brought PPI, Empire State Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production data. The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.4% in June, beating forecasts on 0.2% incline. Final demand prices rose 0.5% in May and declined 0.4% in April. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved down 0.7% for the 12 months ended in June, the fifth straight 12-month decrease. In June, nearly two-thirds of the increase in the final demand index can be attributed to prices for final demand goods, which rose 0.7%. The index for final demand services advanced 0.3%.
Separate report on Empire State Manufacturing Index showed that business conditions improved slightly for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index climbed six points to 3.9. Analysts were predicting incline to 3.4 points. The new orders index was little changed at -3.5, a sign that orders continued to decline, and the shipments index fell four points to 7.9. Labor market indicators signaled a small increase in employment levels and the average workweek. Price indexes pointed to modest increases in both input prices and selling prices, with the prices paid index reaching its lowest level in three years.
Industrial production increased 0.3% in June, but fell at an annual rate of 1.4% for the second quarter of 2015. However, analysts were expecting smaller increase by 0.2%. In June, manufacturing output was unchanged: The output of motor vehicles and parts fell 3.7 percent, but production elsewhere in manufacturing rose 0.3 percent. The indexes for mining and utilities advanced 1.0 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively.
Thursday's US session was marked by Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index data. Jobless claims fell 15,000 to 281,000 in the week ended July 11 from a revised 296,000 in the prior period, beating forecasts on a decline to 284,000. Jobless claims can see-saw at this time of year as automakers shutter plants to retool operations for the new-model year, making it more difficult to discern the underlying trend. Firings have held below 300,000 for 19 consecutive weeks, the longest streak since 2000 and a sign of a stronger labor market.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index decreased from 15.2 in June to 5.7 this month. Analysts were expecting smaller decrease to 11.9 points. With the exception of June’s reading, the diffusion index has remained in the single-digit range since the beginning of this year. The demand for manufactured goods, as measured by the survey’s current new orders index, also expanded modestly. The new orders index remained positive but fell 8 points.
On Friday, CPI, Building Permits, Housing Starts and Consumer Sentiment figures were released. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.3% in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, in line with market expectations. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 0.1% before seasonal adjustment. The seasonally adjusted all items increase was broad-based, with advances in the indexes for gasoline, shelter, and food all contributing. The energy index rose for the second straight month as the indexes for gasoline, electricity, and natural gas all increased. The food index posted its largest increase since September 2014, partly due to a sharp increase in the eggs index. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% in June.
Separate report on Building Permits and Housing Starts also showed better than forecasted figures. Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,343,000. Analysts were anticipating decrease to 1,110,000. This is 7.4% above the revised May rate of 1,250,000 and is 30% above the June 2014 estimate of 1,033,000.
Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,174,000, also above predicted increase to 1,100,000. This is 9.8% above the revised May estimate of 1,069,000 and is 26.6% above the June 2014 rate of 927,000. Single-family housing starts in June were at a rate of 685,000; this is 0.9% below the revised May figure of 691,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 476,000.
The University of Michigan’s preliminary index of sentiment dropped to 93.3 during the month from 96.1 in June, figures showed Friday. Analysts were predicting a reading of 96. Consumers remained upbeat about employment and wages. Even with the decline in sentiment, July marks the eighth straight month the Michigan gauge has been above 90, the longest stretch since a 17-month period ended in early 2005.
This week markets will be looking at:
Existing Home Sales (Wednesday 16:00)
Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)
Flash Manufacturing PMI (Friday 15:45)
New Home Sales (Friday 16:00)