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Events that marked the week:

On Monday Non-Manufacturing PMI figures were published. US Non-Manufacturing PMI registered 56 percent in June, 0.3 percentage point higher than the May reading of 55.7 percent, but below expected increase to 56.5 percent. According to the report, 15 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in June. The majority of respondents’ comments are positive about business conditions and the economy.

Tuesday brought Trade Balance and JOLTS Job Openings figure. US goods and services deficit was $41.9 billion in May, up $1.2 billion from $40.7 billion in April, revised, but below forecasts on deficit of $42.9 billion. May exports were $188.6 billion, $1.5 billion less than April exports. May imports were $230.5 billion, $0.3 billion less than April imports.

 

Job openings were little changed at 5.4 million on the last business day of May, remaining at a historically high level. The job openings rate for May 2015 was 3.6 percent. The number of job openings was little changed for total private and government. Job openings increased in nondurable goods manufacturing and in state and local government. Job openings were little changed in all four regions.

 

Focus of the Wednesday's US session was on FOMC Meeting Minutes. Federal Reserve officials in June saw the economy moving toward conditions that would support an interest-rate increase, while also expressing concern about weak consumer spending and risks from China and Greece. All members but one “indicated that they would need to see more evidence that economic growth was sufficiently strong.” Fed officials in June forecast they would raise rates twice this year, while lowering their outlook for subsequent increases.

 

Since then, global markets have been shaken by the rising risk of a Greek exit from the euro and a rout in Chinese stocks. The minutes showed several Fed officials at the Meeting “mentioned their uncertainty about whether Greece and its official creditors would reach an agreement and about the likely pace of economic growth abroad, particularly China and other emerging market economies.” Many members expected the economy to be near full employment by year-end if growth progressed as they expected. Officials in June expected the unemployment rate to average 5.25% in the final three months of the year. 

 

Thursday's session was marked by Unemployment Claims. In the week ending July 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 297,000, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. Analysts were forecasting decline to 274,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 281,000 to 282,000. The 4-week moving average was 279,500, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average.

 

This week markets will be looking at:

 

Retail Sales (Tuesday 14:30)

PPI (Wednesday 14:30)

Empire State Manufacturing Index (Wednesday 14:30)

Industrial Production (Wednesday 15:15)

Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Thursday 16:00)

Building Permits/Housing Starts (Friday 14:30)

CPI (Friday 14:30)

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (Friday 16:00)

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