Tuesday's US session brought CB Consumer Confidence and Chicago PMI data.The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence increased to 101.4 in June from 94.6 a month earlier. Analysts were expecting a reading of 97.4. After a three-month slide, the Present Situation Index increased, propelled by a more positive assessment of the labor market. Expectations, however, were relatively flat following a steep decline in April. While current conditions in the second quarter appear to be improving, consumers still remain cautious about the short-term outlook.
Separate report on Chicago PMI showed that Barometar increased 3.2 points to 49.4 in June from 46.2 in May, up from February’s 5½-year low but spending the fourth month below 50 since the start of the year. This was also below forecasted incline to 50.4. Despite the modest improvement in June, the Barometer declined to 49.3 in Q2 from 50.5 in the previous quarter, the lowest since Q3 2009, a signal that the bounceback in economic growth in Q2 may be weaker than expected.
Wednesday's US session was marked by ADP job figures.Private sector employment increased by 237,000 jobs from May to June according to the June. This was above expected increase by 219,000. "June job numbers came in at their highest level since December 2014,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “Small businesses continue to lead the way adding over half of the total jobs this month.”
On Thursday US session NFP and Unemployment Claims figures were released.Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 223,000 in June, compared with an average monthly gain of 250,000 over the prior 12 months. Rise by 231,00 was expected. In June, job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, financial activities, and in transportation and warehousing. The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 5.3% in June, above predicted decline to 5.4%, and the number of unemployed persons declined by 375,000 to 8.3 million. Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men, adult women, and blacks edged down in June, while the rates for teenagers, whites , Asians, and Hispanics showed little change.
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls were unchanged at $24.95. Analysts were anticipating increase by 0.2%. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.0 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees edged up by 2 cents to $20.99 in June. Separate report on Unemployment Claims also missed expectations on no change and showed increase to 281,000. The 4-week moving average was 274,750, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 273,750.
This week markets will be looking at:
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Monday 16:00)
Trade Balance (Tuesday 14:30)
FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wednesday 20:00)
Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)