Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,135,000, which is also above anticipated rise to 1,020,000. This is 20.2% above the revised March estimate of 944,000 and is 9.2% above the April 2014 rate of 1,039,000. Single-family housing starts in April were at a rate of 733,000; this is 16.7% above the revised March figure of 628,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 389,000.
Focus of the Wednesday's session was on FOMC Meeting Minutes. Federal Reserve officials last month didn’t expect to raise rates at their next meeting in June even as they concluded that a first-quarter economic slowdown was unlikely to persist, minutes of the meeting show. Many of the participants “thought it unlikely that the data available in June would provide sufficient confirmation that the conditions for raising the target range for the federal funds rate had been satisfied”.
The minutes also confirmed the FOMC’s statement in April that it expects the economy to return to a “moderate pace” of growth after a first-quarter slowdown. Since the meeting, payrolls figures have improved, while weaker-than-forecast data on manufacturing and retail sales prompted economists to mark down projections for second-quarter economic growth.
On Thursday Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index data was released. In the week ending May 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted Unemployment Claims was 274,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 264,000. Analysts were predicting increase to 271,000. The 4-week moving average was 266,250, a decrease of 5,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 271,750. This is the lowest level for this average since April 15, 2000 when it was 266,250.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index decrease do 7.5 points, this missing expectations on an incline to 8.1 points. The indicators for general activity and new orders both suggest expansion, but at a continued modest pace. Firms reported an increase in employment this month. A notable share of respondents continued to report downward price pressures for inputs. For their own manufactured products, more firms reported price decreases than reported price increases, although the majority reported steady prices. Indicators reflecting firms’ expectations for the next six months were near steady this month, and firms remained optimistic about future employment growth.
Existing Home Sales data was also below expectations showing annual rate of 5.04 million, below expected rate of 5.23 million. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says sales in April failed to keep pace with the robust gain seen in March. "April's setback is the result of lagging supply relative to demand and the upward pressure it's putting on prices," he said. "However, the overall data and feedback we're hearing from Realtors continues to point to elevated levels of buying interest compared to a year ago. With low interest rates and job growth, more buyers will be encouraged to enter the market unless prices accelerate even higher in relation to incomes."
Friday's US session brought CPI figures. CPI increased 0.1% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, in line with market forecasts. The all items index declined 0.2% for the 12 months ending April. This represented a slightly larger decrease than the 0.1% decline for the 12 months ending March. The decline was driven by the energy index, which fell 19.4% over the last 12 months, with all the major components declining except electricity. The food index rose 2% over the last year, and the index for all items less food and energy rose 1.8%.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3% in April and led to the slight increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index. Analysts were predicting incline by 0.2%.
Next week markets will be looking at:
Durable Goods Orders (Tuesday 14:30)
CB Consumer Confidence (Tuesday 16:00)
Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)
Pending Home Sales (Thursday 16:00)
Prelim GDP (Friday 14:30)
Chicago PMI (Friday 15:45)
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (Friday 16:00)