Despite RBA's wish for lower exchange rates the AUD sentiment has improved due to weaker than expected recent US data, especially
Retail Sales figures. This rebound is in line with the RBA’s steady outlook and the iron ore price recovery. Despite cutting
interest rates this May the Reserve Bank of Australia still has a fight on its hands – trying to manage a strong Australian dollar. On the other hand
the US dollar is forecasted to remain soft over the course of the coming month by Australia’s Westpac bank who says the currency remains overvalued.
However, we believe that this rebound in Aussie is only of a short-term basis. The rise of the AUD continues to have a negative impact on the economy and RBA Governor Stevens was forced to act. Commodity currencies are struggling after the USD has lost the impressive pace it held last year. The minutes from the RBA latest meeting, which are scheduled for a releases next week, can help the currency to trade lower to boost the competitiveness of its exports.
Aussie fell this morning and is currently being traded few points above 0.8050 level. Pair is likely to find support around 0.80 handle and resistance above 0.8130 area. Later today, in the US session, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production and Consumer Sentiment figures are scheduled for a release.