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NAB Business Confidence unchanged in April

Monday, May 11 2015
Business confidence was unchanged in April, at relatively subdued levels, showing index of +3. Until confidence lifts significantly it is difficult to see a sustained economic recovery developing – to date rate cuts have not appeared to do much and it will be interesting to see what if anything this week’s Federal Budget will do. Interestingly, falls in confidence were confined to a small number of industries (professional services and construction). While less negative than in the past, confidence in mining remain the weakest along with finance/ property/ business. 
 
Recent signs of improvement in the economic partials are encouraging but the non mining sector needs to lift more to offset the impact on domestic demand of sharply lower mining investment and the hit to income from commodity prices. Consumers are still cautious. The biggest concern remains the weak intentions towards business investment. The RBA’s rate cut in May was a line-ball decision, but with partials improving and inflation expected to remain relatively subdued, the RBA is likely to remain on hold for some time unless unemployment rises more than expected.
 
After the data Aussie fell and is currently being traded slightly below 0.79 handle. Pair is likely to find support around 0.7850 area and resistance above 0.7950 level. There will be no major data releases in the rest of the session.
More in this category: « USD - Major events in the week ahead Euro lower ahead of Eurogroup Meeting »

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