BoE released its Meeting Minutes from their latest meeting. Minutes showed that BoE decided to keep interest rates at a record low this month with majority of members stating that “promising” pickup in wage growth wasn’t enough to raise concerns about the outlook for medium-term inflation. ''As yet, pay growth was only roughly in line with, rather than in excess of'', officials said in the minutes.
As it was last month, for two Committee members Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty, a rate increase now was justified. They said policy makers should look through the short-term price movements that had pushed inflation down to 1 percent, and a drop in unemployment was “consistent with the rapid absorption of slack.” They also said it was possible that the “real rate of interest consistent with stable inflation over the medium term was now rising.”
On the US data front CPI figures were released. US Consumer Price Index declined 0.3% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis. Analysts were predicting 0.1% decrease. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.3% before seasonal adjustment. The gasoline index posted its sharpest decline since December 2008 and was the main cause of the decrease in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The indexes for fuel oil and natural gas also declined, and the energy index fell 3.8%. The food index rose 0.2% with major grocery store food groups mixed.The index for all items less food and energy, so called Core CPI, increased 0.1% in November, in line with market forecasts.
As it was largely expected Committee reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation. Labor market conditions improved further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. However, it is expected that the benchmark rate will be 1.125% at the end of next year, compared with a 1.375% median estimate in September.
Focus of the European part of the session, tomorrow, will be on UK Retail Sales data. Analysts are anticipating 0.3% increase in November. In the US session Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Unemployment Claims should rise to 297,000, while Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is forecasted to decline to 26.3 points.
Figures to watch:
Retail Sales (Thursday 10:30)
Unemployment Claims (Thursday 14:30)
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Thursday 16:00)
Last modified on Wednesday, 17 December 2014