AUD/USD Daily Forecast

Monday, Dec 15 2014

Monday brought New Motor Vehicle Sales and RBA Mid Year Fiscal Outlook from Australia. Latest data on New Motor Vehicle Sales showed that in November 2014 seasonally adjusted estimate (91 869) has decreased by 0.6% when compared with October 2014. When comparing seasonally adjusted estimates for November 2014 with October 2014, sales of Passenger and Other vehicles decreased by 1.1% and 2.3% respectively. Over the same period, Sports utility vehicles increased by 1.3%.

Also, RBA released its Mid Year Fiscal and Monetary Outlook. Report showed that RBA sees 2014-15 deficit at $40.4 billion vs $29.8 billion gap in the May estimates. It also assumes $60 per ton iron ore price over 2 years. Inflation was moved from 2.25% in the May estimates for the second quarter to 2.5%. GDP growth in 2015-16 was unchanged from 3% in the May estimates , as well as 2.5% growth in 2014-15.

On the other hand jobless rate is now projected at 6.5% by the second quarter revised negatively from 6.25% in the May estimates. It does not project budget surplus until 2019/20.Also, China growth in 2015 is forecasted at 6.75%.

In the US session Empire State Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production figures were released. The December 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity declined for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index dropped fourteen points to -3.6, its first negative reading in nearly two years. Analysts were anticipating incline to 12.1 points. The new orders index also fell into negative territory, tumbling eleven points to -2.0, and the shipments index fell to -0.2.

Industrial production increased 1.3% in November after edging up in October, beating market expectations on 0.8% growth. Output is now reported to have risen at a faster pace over the period from June through October than previously published. In November, manufacturing output increased 1.1% with widespread gains among industries.

Tomorrow, from Australia, RBA Meeting Minutes will be released, though we do not expect them to cause any great market movement as already was said in previous RBA Statement as well as Mid Year Fiscal and Monetary Outlook. Also, from China, Manufacturing PMI figures are scheduled for a release. Analysts are forecasting slight incline to 52.3 points. In the US session Building Permits and Housing Starts figures will be released. Figures slightly above 1 million are predicted for both data.

Figures to watch:

RBA Meeting Minutes (Tuesday 1:30)

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (Tuesday 2:45)

Building Permits/Housing Starts (Tuesday 14:30)

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