GBP/USD Daily Forecast

Tuesday, Apr 19 2016

With no major data releases from the UK yesterday, traders continue to watch the Brexit polls and remain unsure as what to expect as the June 23rd vote approaches. As the countdown to the referendum begins its final phase the Remain campaign has seen further improvement in its position according to the latest ORB Poll for the The Telegraph. If a referendum was held today, Remain would secure 52% of the vote, an increase of three points since the previous ORB poll, while Leave would secure 43% of the vote, a decrease of five points since the previous poll. But this isn’t solely down to an improvement in turnout among Remain voters. The Remain campaign has also persuaded more voters of the case for staying in the EU.

In the US session Housing Starts and Building Permits figures were published. New-home construction in the U.S. slumped more than projected in March, reflecting a broad-based retreat that showed the industry lost momentum heading into the busiest time of year. Residential starts decreased 8.8% to a 1.09 million annualized rate that was the lowest since October. Permits, a proxy for future construction, also dropped. Estimates of 78 economists polled ranged from 1.12 million to 1.22 million. The previous month was revised up to 1.19 million from a 1.18 million pace. Permits decreased 7.7% to a 1.09 million annualized rate, the fewest in a year.

Focus of tomorrow's session was on UK job data. Number of unemployed is expect to decrease by 11,900, while Unemployment Rate should remain stable at 6.1%. In the US session Existing Home Sales figures will be released. Analysts predict increase to 5.29 million.

Figures to watch:

Claimant Count Change/Unemployment Rate (Wednesday 10:30)

Existing Home Sales (Wednesday 16:00)

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