There were no data releases from the UK yesterday, with markets still speculating on possible effects of Brexit as referendum date approaches. Mark Carney could face a challenge in just over two months, regardless of whether Britons choose to stay in or quit the European Union. While the Bank of England governor has signaled a slow tightening path, and investors see no rate increase for years, a vote to stay in the EU on June 23 potentially creates a whole new backdrop. With ‘Brexit’ risk removed, markets could pull in bets for a hike, generating a new communication hurdle for the Monetary Policy Committee, which holds its monthly meeting this week.
The BOE’s nine-member MPC will probably vote unanimously to keep the benchmark
interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent on Thursday as uncertainty generated by the referendum supports the case against action. The decision will be released at noon, alongside a policy statement and a record of members’ votes.
If Britons vote to remain in the EU, attention could return quickly to when the BOE will start raising rates. With wage and unit labor cost growth gradually increasing as economic slack is eliminated, that could be as early as the end of the year, according to James Rossiter, an economist at TD Securities in London.
From the UK, tomorrow, CPI and PPI figures are scheduled for a release. Analysts anticipate 0.3% increase in CPI and 2.1% incline in PPI Input. There will be no data releases in the US part of the session.
Figures to watch:
CPI/PPI Input (Tuesday 10:30)