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GBP/USD Daily Forecast - 28 March

Friday, Mar 25 2016

There were no data releases from the UK on Friday with banks being closed in observance of Good Friday holiday. With British public opinion evenly split on whether to remain a member of the EU, the world's largest trading bloc, and many voters yet to make up their mind, Johnson, is hoping to become the galvanizing figurehead for the "Out" campaign. The uncertainty over the impact of a Brexit scenario meant that investors tend to de-risk through the holdings of GBP assets, which include the currency. GBP has fallen -3.5 per cent year-to-date on heightened Brexit risks, and the future path depends significantly on how the debate pans out in the coming months ahead of the 23 June referendum.

In the US session GDP figures were released. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. No change from prelim reading of 1.0% increase was expected. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.0%. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, residential fixed investment, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

 

There will be no data releases from the UK on Monday with banks being closed in observance of Easter Monday. In the US session Final Pending Home Sales figures will be published. Analysts forecast 1.2% increase.

 

Figures to watch:

 

Pending Home Sales (Monday 15:00)

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